THE U.S.–CHINA SEMICONDUCTOR RIVALRY: EXPORT CONTROLS, CHINA’S TECHNOLOGICAL ADAPTATION, AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

Abstract

The U.S.–China technology rivalry has made semiconductors central to economic competition and national security. Washington has introduced export controls to restrict China’s access to advanced computing chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. China has responded by investing in domestic fabrication, improving AI-software efficiency, expanding mature-node production, and exploring alternative technical pathways. This qualitative study examines these reciprocal strategies through defensive realism and technological determinism, drawing on government documents, industry reports, and technical literature. It evaluates self-aligned quadruple patterning (SAQP), the experimental steady-state microbunching (SSMB) EUV-source concept, silicon photonics, and carbon-nanotube devices without treating research progress as commercial maturity. The analysis argues that restrictions can constrain specific capabilities while also strengthening incentives for domestic substitution, thereby reshaping supply chains and strategic calculations. It recommends targeted, coordinated controls, stronger domestic and allied manufacturing capabilities, and sustained investment in emerging technologies and computing efficiency.