THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DESERT LOCUST INFESTATIONS IN PAKISTAN AND THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY-ENABLED CONTROL

Abstract

In Pakistan, desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) infestation is a common issue. The country is along the migratory path of the insect and also has sizeable breeding grounds in its own territory. In the 2019-2020 heightened surge, these swarms reached Sindh and Punjab, and the government had declared a national emergency in January 2020 and the initial assessment found damages in excess of 115,000 hectares. Official Pakistani data, FAO and World bank reports and published research has been used in this study to look into the impact of locust outbreaks on the economy. The channels covered are crop and input losses, rural income, food security, livestock feed, government spending, agricultural supply chains and poverty. There is a difference between reported damage and scenario estimates of damage, which ranged from PKR 205 billion to PKR 464 billion based on the assumed level of damage and type of crops. The paper also gives a summary of traditional control methods and the potential contribution of digital technologies. The CropShield prototype, which combines geotagged field reports, mapping, spread modelling and drone mission planning, is discussed as an example only, since it has not been tested in the field. The findings show that the cost of an outbreak depends mainly on how early it is detected and controlled. Continuous surveillance, quicker field response and data sharing with neighbouring countries are likely to cost less than large emergency campaigns launched after swarms have spread.